There will not be an "all clear" sign

Figure 1: Number of days from market peak to bear market

Over the last 80 years, the market has bottomed on average 107 days before the end of a recession. While we hear various estimates of time until the market bottoms, days until virus outbreaks peak, and the length of the recession, there will not be an ‘all-clear’ sign for when the market starts to recover and it’s ‘okay’ for investors to jump back in.

Last month Michael LaBella posted a piece, Is this time really different?, that is a good reminder of the benefits of a rules-based approach, diversification, and the futility of trying to 'pick a bottom.'


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